Private Companies Are Safer Than Public Co’s!

So you have a choice where to invest your money. You can buy shares in Citi or Goldman, which have a chance of going down to zero or could go up a few points or you can invest in a private company (startup) that can go down to zero but you have a shot at a 3X, 5X, 10X, 100X return. What makes more sense?

In our twisted economy, startups are safer. Almost All investments these day have the same BETA (risk factor). Almost all big companies rely on commercial paper and short term financing to survive. If they can’t borrow they die. That is actually riskier than a funded startup that at least has 12 months to live.

And returns have more potential with startups…a hot startup beats a 10% annualized return…

Think about it…

Lack of Innovation

So it’s 1:27AM and instead of sleeping, I’m writing. I’m just addicted to this dam internet thing. Anyway, I was at a friends’ event and thought about my own events and the question I am always asked “what companies are exciting in New York?” … and the truth is, not many. The last stat I heard was that $35BN in tech companies are in NYC - but when you think about the number, it’s like google’s thumbnail. I really have seen very few companies that I truly can get behind. I’m not going to talk about my own ventures because I’m obviously biased but just take a look at most venture portfolios and see if the companies excite you. Some may be great and may make money and get good exits but do they excite you? Are they sexy? Are they innovative? Very few have crossed the chasm as far as I’m concerned and I’ve probably seen any many companies as anyone else in the last 6 months in nyc. Anyway, enough of a rant and goodnight.

Please, someone prove me wrong!

My industry is way too sober

Over the last few months, I’ve been hosting a number of events for the startup space. We’ve been having these Happy Hour events at swanky midtown locations but they keep losing money at the bar. It seems startups and investors don’t want to let their guard down and drink while “on duty”. I don’t blame them - I can be an ass when I drink - but still it would be nice to break even on the events. So please next time you’re at one of my events, even if you don’t drink - buy others drinks and get them drunk so they can make funny faces and amuse you greatly. Yes, buy people booze, lots of booze - at my events.

I can’t sleep

So i went to the gym tonight for the first time in 2 weeks and figured I’d need a rush so I bought an energy drink - one I had never tried before - RedLine - one of the guys warned me it’s like RedBull X5 so i took it anyway… didn’t effect me for about 40 minutes - until I was leaving the gym, then got drymouth and now feel like a rat on speed - super jittery, hyperactive, wide awake and want to run 100 miles. Luckily, I don’t have my shoes on so I don’t think I’ll go running in the dark and trip over my own feet moving too fast. But a warning - watch out for those energy drinks - sheesh. I had trouble sleeping all week and was like a zombie, reminded me of high school all over again. But tonight, wow, I’m going crazy and thus the many blog posts.

While i’m in this hyper attentive state, I figured I’d muse on the NYC tech/finance scene. Lately, I’ve been lucky enough to get in deep in the community, the alley 2.0 so to speak and count among my friends most of the people that throw events in our great city. Interestingly enough, I started throwing events so I ended up friends with the people that do. Probably is subconsciously intentional. What i’ve realized, is that everyone that has started events in the last year or so fits the same profile, overambitious bootstrapper trying to get ahead and not quite sure why they are throwing events yet know people appreciate them and they are doing well. Also, most of the events, don’t make much money. Some do, most don’t, which is something most attendees don’t realize. Small events such as happy hours and the like don’t make bank - big events like conferences bring home the Bacon though.

Along those lines, people are insulted sometimes when they are charged to go to small events - thinking its charity that someone is spending time & money planning events and also putting their reputation on the line. I mean, it’s very risky throwing events for your reputation. If you throw one bad event you can lose your whole audience. It’s much easier just to be in the crowd and attend, then there’s no risk. For example, I cohost a happy hour series, www.startuphappy.com and we charge $10/$20 at the door.

Someone got angry at me for charging and basically attacked me for charging. First off, we have a bar gaurantee and at startup/investor events no one drinks so we lose money at the bar - quite a bit. Our first Happy Hour lost $1500 - out of a $2000 gaurantee, only $500 was spent across 80 people. The cover helps us break even. We don’t profit from the events - it would be nice though to make a few bucks for the time and reputation risk put in but it’s okay, I have a long term view of building my network and helping people. But just something to keep in mind is that most events actually lose money - few make any money next time you bitch about a cover. If you’re unhappy about it - simply don’t attend or throw your own.

Now, I don’t want to sound like I’m ranting which I suppose I am but it can be frustrating sometimes. I love hosting events and helping people so it’s worthwhile and I hope some good comes out of my events. I’ve also noticed that the more you charge for an event, the more people appreciate it. I suspect it is a level of subconscious belief that because it is expensive, it is good and okay to charge.

I have a bunch of cool events in planning and love helping out with other peoples’ events. I feel in the long run being in the center of the network, the crux of the information flow has its merits. It builds a lot of goodwill and goodwill is important for a scrappy up and comer like me that wants to succeed. Sure, i’ve had my successes & failures in the past but I’m up for another go around. Got lots of stuff in the fire and it seems no matter how much I want to focus, I end up involved in more and more projects. Hopefully, I’ll be able to force myself to focus properly in the next few weeks and I give it a go for my next (hopefully) big thing.

Wow, i’m all over the place tonight. Reminder to self - never drink RedLine again - never.

The most important thing if you want to be a Cereal entrepreneur…

Be good friend with a fucking great lawyer. Not a mediocre lawyer, a shark. Don’t hire one. Be friends with one. A good lawyer now will save you heardache later. I just learned this lesson by accident. I’ve been screwed many a times because of shoddy legal work (usually me trying to play my own lawyer - bad idea folks) and i recently because good friends with a great lawyer (hiya joe) who happens to love startups, if i stay out of trouble in the future it’ll probably be because of him.

Nothing is more important than a good well written, notarized contract. Except having a shark to protect you once someone tries to fuck you over - which will happen….

FInd a friend or at least hire a big firm and save your ass now. Spend a little now to save a lot later. Don’t be foolish, you need a lawyer like an atlantic city hooker needs her fix - get it!

My Project List

So i figured its time to give a project list to the world

1) AdSolutia.com - my ad co - using AI to take over the world
2) TakesAllTypes.org - my non profit - register to donate blood
3) TheSocialMall.com - chairman of 400,000 rabid shoe lovers
4) Frumster.com - consulting as chief marriage officer, i love- the title
5) Geekplease.com - cofounder - IT support community
6) Bloomberg09.com - spoof site for bloomberg for president
7) bootstrapper.com - relaunching as blog site
8) seedingit.com - seed capital group
9) Trying to take over a bankrupt call center
10) FInancing - in process of trying to finance 4 companies
11) NSAMail - email for colleges (about to start fundraising)

Always looking to help great entrepreneurs, the average deal though im not spending much time on, its more of the rapid fire startup building that i do for most of them, building teams and architecting sites/marketing. as you know i have ADD and am a shitty ops guy.

Organizational Psych

So I’m in involved with a non profit, takealltypes.org, we have about 50 people who volunteered to help, in reality we have 4 people doing work on it though, its interesting how no matter what type of organization, you start with X and end up with X-10.

I think people like volunteering but not doing any functional work. This is also why most startups stutter, founders dont take things seriously. I am very wary of startups that aren’t full time jobs (including my own) as a result of focus. If you want to succeed at a startup you need to be 1000X dedicated and focused or you’ll drop the ball.

Cereal Entrepreneurs

I got into a discussion the other day with a very sharp overworked entrepreneur/investor who i will call AR over NYC repeat entrepreneurs. How many repeat successful entrepreneurs do we have? His thought was that because there isn’t much repeat entrepreneurs there isn’t knowledge transfer and thus no community forms. We have lots of first time entrepreneurs, a few good ideas and lots of people that like thinking about but not doing startups.

The possible reasons is that companies get acquired in NYC, founder than a huge salary and no longer has a reason to do it again, there’s simply so much going on in nyc vs. the valley where all you have is a manufactured town with a main street and a coffee shop with mediocre live music….and a pet store…

The partial list of Cereal entrepreneurs that we came up with is as follows: there is one caveat, most of these guys live outside of nyc…

Kevin Ryan, DoubleClick & Now many companies at AlleyCorp
Nate Brochin, Rare Medium and a wireless company
Dean Margolis, Comet Systems, now recordmycalls
Jason Olim, CDNow, now Dorado Capital

I know there’s more, but if you look at the turnout at the events in nyc there really is no one that shows that is a Cerealist and provides much feedback to the populace. It’s funny but where is our accessible success stories?

I make no sense

Those of you that know me, know that I don’t pretend to make any sense. I still don’t get myself. The last few months have been surreal, my network keeps growing and i’m fairly well known in the startup community and I really didn’t do so much to get there.

My seed capital group is growing, Sun is sponsoring it and we are launching the Happy Hour Series with The Hatchery & Tri-State Ventures. I’m also looking into throwing a large fancy startup forum sometime in the next few months, exact opposite of my campy informal activities so we’ll see.

I’m working with Frumster & Shoes! Application on facebook to help grow, monetize and finance them.

AdSolutia is generating $2,000 a day in revenue but breaking even and causing stress because leads suck and our technology has issues, one of my clients is screwing me etc…so in general its unpleasant. My demos are almost ready so I can start pitching it around and hopefully can raise money. I think I have a decent shot at it, a lot of people are interested. Our AI is pretty sweet. I also just bought an email marketing company with 400k in revenue and a pile of data. Hopefully we can generate some cash off of it in January. That would be pretty sweet.

I’m informally advising probably a dozen startups in random ways and HotUpping is still in development, we have TakesAllTypes in dev and should launch in January and a few other random things working their way out - Davis’ app may go somewhere if he gets his act together and relaunching bootstrapper and a pile of startup related sites in the next few months that i think could be fun.

I was thinking of working on financing for startups as a business but i just don’t see enough interesting startups that i dont think i can make money from it. Also the whole broker/dealer thing, which i can probably solve. I Still want to get the call center deal done, that would be awesome, been 4-5 months already, that deal would open so many doors if i can take control of a 1500 seat call center company. I can grow the crap out of it.

financing methods

There a number of ways to finance ventures. Here is my quick and dirty analysis of each funding mechanism.

Self Funded - you are in control and own it but unless you are discplined and have experience, entrepreneurs tend to lose their head in the clouds. This is great if you are an expert and experienced already - if not get to the point where you can sustain professional help fast - or you too will need professional help.

Partners - Partners are great as they can counter each other but two partners with no experience does not equal one with experience. Partners where one is at a higher level or more dedicated is bad. Most partnerships break up. They are only good with two experienced people on the same level.

Dumb Money Angel: This is the guy that runs the carwash. This is great if you know what you are doing. If you too are clueless - besides for being lucky at finding financing - you are going to waste his money. So the question is if you have a conscience or not? Many a fund managers can’t sleep when they lose OPM.

Smart Money Angels: This is generally the best way to start a company, esp. if smart money is from the industry you are targeting. Usually you’ll get a fair valuation and validation on your concept and expert help achieving your goals and be able to leverage their network. It’s a win-win all around.

Tier 1 VC: This is good if you need a LOT of cash and is second best to smart money angels. Names like Softbank, Seq, DFJ etc… are great. These leads will take a lot of equity, rip you to shreds on due diligence but be fair and add value. If you can get them to invest that means something.

Tier 3 VC / Vulture Capital: Tier 2/3 VC = people playing VC’s that aren’t in it for building real value. Vulture Capital is selfish money that screws entrepreneurs (short term approach since our industry is small and word gets around). If you take on this capital, have a great friggin lawyer and make sure you are protected. Always ask for references of successful exits and failures from your investor and see what happened. Do your research. These guys will take 95% of your company if you are not careful.

Debt Financing: Take it if you can get it. It can be free. Mortgaging your house is self financing and not debt financing. Debt is actual real debt. Debt can kill a company as fast as it can help though so watch your ass. Sometimes you can get a mix of debt & equity. If you are careful this is great - if you are not careful you will give away your whole company. Why? Equity/Debt hybrids usually have a convertible clause where if you don’t pay it back in X debt converts to equity - you lose control and your equity is worthless. Then again if you can’t pay it back - your equity probably is worthless anyway.

Reverse Merger Financing: This can great (access to debt, liquidity, stock to acquire companies and incentivize employees) or horrible (work with shady people who stick you with nasty convertible debt and consulting fees and then convert the debt into equity, take control and kick you out. This is shady finance though can be extremely productive if you are careful - or it will destroy your business and make mortal enemies of the people pulling the strings.

As for me - I’m a serial entrepreneur, run BootStrapper.com, have self funded a couple ventures, taken on partners and broken up hard, run a seed capital group and am involved in some interesting ventures now.

Entrepreneurs BullSHIT

So my last post was on calling VC’s on their bullshit, now i need to turn the table on myself and call entrepreneurs on our own bullshit.

FIRST OFF: VCs get screwed by entrepreneurs more than the VC’s screw entrepreneurs and thus resulting in my last post. My last post was meant to spark discussion not be an end all be all in itself.

The biggest problem with entrepreneurs is a lot of us are arrogant and delusional and think we can manage when we can’t. Additionally, a lot of entrepreneurs let the money/power get to their heads and they go crazy and start screwing everyone.
There are more failures then successes in a venture portfolio. Entrepreneurs primarily get screwed on the successes so who gets screwed on the failures? Everyone.

The main point of my last few posts is to stir up discussion and hopefully get people to be a little more transparent and honest. If we can be honest with each other about our good/bad/strengths/weaknesses then its far more likely to be able to work well today. I’m just asking everyone to call themselves on their own BS :) I try to call myself on mine all the time and ask everyone to call me on it too.

1) Your valuation doesn’t matter - it’s better to be honest, say the amount of cash you need, what you will use it for - and then just ask the investor to justify his valuation. The investor is not going to believe your projections anyway.

2) Your business plan is NOT a sales document - it is an internal plan and support document. If it’s full of flowery bullshit ergo you are full of flowery bullshit. Your business plan should break down your business in very simple terms and inside you should play devil’s advocate with yourself. I want to see the RISKS section to see if you are grounded in reality. Also, my countering criticisms in the plan - you can be several chess moves ahead of investors as you will have taken out a lot of steam from their punches and can negotiate more evenly.

3) You are selling yourself first, your team second, your idea third and your execution fourth. Most people forget about the first 2. The odds are there are 50 people out there with the same ideas as you - therefore the reason the investor is investing is you and your team.

4) Have either a finished product or at least one member of your team with real related top level (funded startup or public company) experience. If you have a napkin idea and you’re a plumber you’re not getting any investors - unless they are fools.

5) If your presentation is boring - you suck. You are selling yourself - if you can’t sell yourself well, odds are the investors are asleep.

6) If you say “I just need cash” then you better be willing to step aside as CEO. If you have to ask for cash there’s a greater than 50% chance you shouldn’t be CEO. Unless of course you’ve bootstrapped it to a product and need cash for a very specific reason. I’m not saying you are definitely terrible but if you have to ask for investors - then you are clearly not a big swinging dick - or you wouldn’t need investors ergo have some humility. Personally, I will not work with arrogant delusional assholes. (unless of course that delusional asshole is myself, in which case i am truly screwed)

7) Most founders are terrible managers. Horrible managers. Have some humility and know when to replace yourself. I don’t understand why Jerry Yang is CEO of Yahoo, if i remember correctly, didn’t he step down originally because he was running the company into the ground? He’s brilliant, he built a huge company but he should probably not be CEO (unless he’s learned his lesson but my theory is that entrepreneurs rarely though sometimes learn to manage). As Mark Davis says: “There are 3 stages in companies, startup, growth and maturity - the same person is rarely right to run it at each stage” (he said something like that). It’s true. People have skills, harness them, don’t be a prick and think you are superman. If you can do all 3 stages = you are Bill Gates.

8) Talk Don’t Sell. I hate when people go into pitch mode. Talk to me like i’m your partner not an investor. NO investor wants to hear a salespitch.

9) If you don’t solve a problem, you are not a company. You may be a great feature but if you don’t solve a problem you are not sustainable. Twitter is likely going to die because it is a feature not a problem solver. If you cannot articulate the problem you are solving then you ain’t solving shit and find a new idea. Your pitch should be the following: Ask the person you are pitching a question. Then show how you solve it. Follow it up with 10 seconds on your team and close it with a brief history of you (especially your failures).

10) I don’t care who your board of advisers are if you are an asshole or an idiot.

11) 14 board of advisers = window dressing. If i see a lot of advisers i’m going to ask you point blank “What are you hiding?” and follow it up with “So i see you’ve spent a lot of time bringing on 14 advisers, how much profit do you have?” The exception is in situations where you need political capital and you just need to jam your board. It also helps to have a lot of super connected people on your board if your trying to sell the company, can help inflate the valuation.

12) Failures are not a bad thing. As Larry likes to say: “so you’ve never failed before = therefore your asking me to invest in your first failure?” If you’re never failed before - why should anyone invest in you? … because if you haven’t failed failure (bankruptcy) in the face then how will an investor know you have the balls to run a company when the shit hits the fan? :) but you better be able to show why you will be successful now.

13) Everyone knows you don’t have any cash - so just admit it and move on. Don’t justify it or bullshit it. If you had cash, you wouldn’t be trying to raise money. Most great serialist entrepreneurs are not liquid. It’s not something to be ashamed of - begging for money however is something to be ashamed of!

14) If you are running a million miles a minute, you have probably dropped your wallet 600,00 miles ago. Relax. Going fast and setting artificial and expedited deadlines is a recipe for failure. A month doesn’t make a difference, if you think it does, no one should invest in you because you are probably delusional.

15) Have a confidante - have at least one if not many friends that are wiser and more experienced then you and listen to their sage advice. Entrepreneurs as a tribe are self destructive. We need people to keep us out of trouble.

16) If you don’t know how to market your product, you don’t deserve to be CEO and probably don’t deserve any money - unless you are humble enough to admit it.

17) If you cannot monetize your product, you don’t deserve to be CEO and probably don’t deserve any money - unless you are humble enough to admit it.

18) Viral Marketing is a myth. Word of mouth marketing does not exist because you say it does. All things must be seeded if you don’t understand this, you will fail. Seeding usually costs money or requires my Hijack Marketing. Did you know Myspace was seeded? ResponseBase had 300 employees, each of which referred on average 30 friends thats 9000 friends, they also emailed out to millions upon millions of records in their database - especially to daters as they owned a dating site. They seeded the site with close to 50,000 members and there wasn’t many social networking sites around at the time. So why do you think you will be successful with just word of mouth marketing today when the market is flooded with noise? You will fail unless you understand marketing. I want to know how you will market - not just what method you hope to bullshit me into believing you understand.

19) if you can’t convince me why the world needs your product in 30 seconds, give up and find something new to do. (The exception to this is very specialized and some b2b products that actually require detailed explanation)

20) If you can’t give me one example of how someone must have your product - then i don’t want to hear it - find something new to do.

Poker

So for anyone that wants to know I just played poker - and I lost - even though I was up 90% of the night … here’s what happened…

I sit down and in the first hour i more then double up. Good sign. I’m good at playing the tables and controlling it…the problem is i eventually get too arrogant, make a few stupid bets and get paranoid and then run in head first into a brick wall. I did that tonight - twice…

to the same person…

The second time I had Pocket Kings and lost to a flush…and he checked when he hit the flush after a reraise, I should have seen it coming …

But here’s why i lost …. I didn’t follow my own rules…

What are my rules?
1) When i’m up 80% over my buy in, take a break for at least 20 minutes and eat something after i lose a hand I play in (even if its only the blinds)
2) when i give myself a set time to leave, I go.

I didn’t follow either one.

So What’s the point of the first one? It’s to avoid hubris. When your up, you think you are on the top of the world and when you’re playing NL Holdem (esp. high stakes) you’re always dumb money to someone else so sure you could have caught a hot streak but be happy you’re winning and take a break and relax a bit…then keep playing and it’ll be like a new session all over again

And why the second rule of leaving when i say i will - because otherwise you rationalize and end up looking at the clock. Looking at the clock almost guarantees losses because you lose focus and once you break one rule you end up chasing cards which generally means tilt and more losses

So whats the moral of the story…if you set rules keep them…

And oh yea…always follow your gut!

The Art of Pitching

Guy Kawasaki wrote the Art of the Start - which is a great book btw. Here is my simpler version - the Art of Pitching…

1) Always stretch first.

2) Practice makes perfect. Light bullpen sessions in your spare time are a good idea.

3) Video tape yourself so you can see your mechanics in action.

4) Get a coach that will critique you and make suggestions

5) Throw

6) if you see a flaw while you’re in a game, try a different pitch and correct it later. Don’t go back to square one in the middle of a game

7) Stretch again after

8) Rest for 5 days and hit the mound again

9) Repeat

10) W

Super Serialitis

Now there are 2 types of entrepreneurs:

1. One off entrepreneurs. People with a big idea or found a problem to fix. These people are stable and tend to be good investments with the right guidance. The problem with one off entrepreneurs is that they tend to be gun shy when its their own money at stake so they need hand holding.

2. Seral Entrepreneurs: these people need no hand holding. They are gung-ho smart guys. The problem is that without the right context they are easily misunderstood. They may have a million ideas and talk about a new one each week even while building a different one. They don’t build everything they talk about, not even close but they love sharing ideas. Serial entrepreneurs tend to be screwed because they tell other people their ideas to get feedback and sometimes ideas get stolen. Serialists love the thrill of solving a problem and look for it in everyday life (this is a curse btw) because they are so critical of the world around them, they tend to spot a lot of flaws. The problem is, these people tend to be dismissed by normal society and a lot of investors as crackpots (unless they have a super successful exit behind them). Context is king if you are a serialist and want funding. Know how to control yourself and who to present your ideas to and how. Personally i’ve given up on pretending not to be a serialist and acknoledge it and hope people understand and I know how to market myself and I still scare people away. It’s life.

10 Advices to be an Entrepreneur

1) have experience on your team in the space you are in
2) research
3) go slow, don’t rush
4) make sure you have enough cash to feed your family
5) ask for advice
5) seek professional help (ass in a therapist)
6) seek professional help with your business plan
7)
8) There is no lucky 7 - because don’t count on luck
9) have confidence
10) don’t give up but know when to toss in the towel
11) spellcheck…learn to us it