Now I’m not an expert in economics but here is my layman’s fix for the economy. First off, the solution is not to bail out banks. Banks paid out their earnings in bonuses to the idiots who got us into this mess. We shouldn’t be giving the same dollars paid out in bonuses back to the banks because they fucked up. It is to support the system but not give away free money to banks.
So what is it? Now there the problem is that the biggest problem is trust - which has led to the credit freeze and i have no idea how to bring back trust. The best i think we can do is try enough tweaks to the system to keep it afloat. But here are some ideas …
1) Provide Credit to Main Street: Right now big companies don’t have access to credit. This doesn’t sound scary until you realize that most companies rely on something called Commercial Paper to finance day to day operations. Basically they borrow money every day in order to make sure they can pay their bills since companies rarely get money in smoothly. (BTW: Goldman Sachs was originally built as a Commercial Paper Brokerage!). Banks right now are taking money offered from the government and keeping it and not lending it out so they can keep their reserve requirements if their asset value drops. The money being lent to banks is not being lent to companies. So what should the government do? Lend it to companies directly. The government should use the GEICO model and lend commercial paper directly to companies. This is VERY VERY low risk lending and they can make it show up as some form of government lien so that they get paid back first in the case of a bankruptcy.
2) Transparent Reporting & Clearinghouse: Require any bank or publicly traded company to report ALL derivatives including who the counter party is to a clearinghouse supported by the government (initially but later turned into a non profit entity like the original NYSE or privatized etc…) for all derivative transactions. Companies should need to report any transaction over $100,000 that involved leverage. That simple. If you borrow, you report. If it’s a derivative, it gets reported like any other borrowing. It should be easy to see what would happen if a big player is unravelled. It should just be a matter of checking a database and printing out a report. If someone is buying something, i suppose there should be an electronic signature of the purpose somewhere. Dig them up and make it reporting in the future.
3) Get rid of Mark to Market for illiquid securities: The requirements for marking to market securities for banks need to be changed so that if there is no LIQUID market, security should be valued at fair value (value of cash flows) instead of based on the market. Marking to Market was the reason that Morgan Stanley sold billions of dollars in mortgage securities to a PE fund for pennies on the dollar and FINANCED it themselves. Think about this - they sold something to someone and financed the transaction. DId they shift the risk? NO! They just got it off their books. There is no reason anyone should ever do this accounting chicanery. It is just BS. If a security isn’t liquid, it should be valued based on cash flows that come in from it. That simple. (if it’s not possible to check what cash flow is coming in from it - then you’re just fucked - see above on need for a clearinghouse).
4) Buy Securities & Get Preferred Shares: The current bailout needs to have adequate preferred share coverage for every mortgage security the government buys so if they overpay for securities now (short term) they can benefit in the upside of the company they are bailing out (long term equity). I have no idea what the ratio should be, but it should be balance. Then the government needs to restructure the loans they buy and unwind the securities (very tough) because even if housing stock falls 25%, it is still worth 75% of what it’s worth today. That value needs to be extracted out of teh houses and hopefully restructure houses because it still should be cheaper than dealing with foreclosing.
5) Unlimited FDIC Guarantees of Savings We need to insure 100% of bank deposits. We already did it for money markets, we need to do it for everyone else.
6) Recapitalizing the banking system - I have no idea how to do this but i’ve heared ideas ranging from forced conversion of unsecured debt to common stock to the government directly investing along with PE funds in financial institutions. The government should invest alongside distressed investor PE funds in the institutions. Or perhaps just give Warren Buffet $100BN of government money to manage.
That’s it. Nothing fancy. No need to buy anything from banks or waste any billions of dollars. Simply change the rules, make everybody report everything and provide direct credit into the market. Banks already have access to this credit, allow non banks to get access to credit directly but on terms where the government will get paid back. The economy will slowly recover and no big companies besides for banks will fail - though Banks shouldn’t be allowed to fail but the very weak ones should be sold such as what happened to WAMU. WAMU was a horribly run company (check out WAMU Fraud) but there are a number of other banks that simply wrote too many OPTION ARM Loans to Subprime borrowers that shouldn’t be bailed out. But they shouldn’t fail because the FDIC can’t afford it and it would kill the country with a super bank run. However, since there will be access to credit big companies will survive and main street will be saved.
If I wanted to go further, I would enable unlimited money market and bank account coverage at a higher insurance cost) and in order to have full coverage, the bank would need to abide by the clearinghouse/reporting and a higher reserve requirement. I would also make it stupid simple for average folks to buy government securities and would make it easier for businesses with VERY GOOD credit to borrow money through the SBA. Make lending simpler and cheaper for the time being but only for people with solid credit.
Anyway, this will never get done but its my 2 cents, being an observer with no investment banking experience and just a simple degree in finance.